AI share forecast (model)
A model-based forecast of next month's (Aug 2026) AI-chatbot market share, computed from past trends. We also publish accuracy with a backtest on the latest month.
⚠ The forecast on this page is a model-based estimate (reference value) drawn from past trends, not an actual figure or a guarantee of the future. For actual market share, see AI Share.
Forecast share for next month (Aug 2026)
| AI tool | Latest actual (Jul 2026) | Forecast (Aug 2026) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | 78.97% | 79.68% | ▲0.71 |
| Google Gemini | 8.80% | 8.74% | ▼0.06 |
| Perplexity | 6.21% | 5.70% | ▼0.51 |
| Microsoft Copilot | 3.19% | 3.00% | ▼0.19 |
| Claude | 2.78% | 2.82% | ▲0.04 |
| DeepSeek | 0.04% | 0.05% | ▲0.01 |
Forecasting Jul 2026 and comparing with the actual
Using only data before Jul 2026, the model forecast Jul 2026 and we compared it with the actual. Mean absolute error (MAE) = 1.19pt.
| AI tool | Forecast | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | 76.48% | 78.97% | 2.49pt |
| Google Gemini | 7.73% | 8.80% | 1.07pt |
| Perplexity | 8.14% | 6.21% | 1.93pt |
| Microsoft Copilot | 3.58% | 3.19% | 0.39pt |
| Claude | 4.03% | 2.78% | 1.25pt |
| DeepSeek | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.01pt |
How the forecast is computed
We add the average month-over-month change (momentum) over the most recent three months to the latest actual to estimate the next month, then normalize so all tools sum to 100%. Discontinuous changes such as new model launches or sudden buzz are not reflected.
For transparency, we also include a "backtest" where the same model forecasts the latest month and is compared with the actual. For the methodology, see also Data & methodology.
Frequently asked questions
Is this forecast accurate?
How is the forecast calculated?
Where can I see the actual share?
Related pages
⚠ These rankings are reference values based on public market-share data, web-traffic estimates and editorial research, and do not represent a complete count of every user of each AI tool. Rankings change with the measurement method (web-visit share vs. market share, etc.). Always check each official site for the latest information.