AI Share LabAI SHARE / USAGE / TREND
AI SHARE FORECAST

AI share forecast (model)

A model-based forecast of next month's (Oct 2026) AI-chatbot market share, computed from past trends. We also publish accuracy with a backtest on the latest month.

⚠ The forecast on this page is a model-based estimate (reference value) drawn from past trends, not an actual figure or a guarantee of the future. For actual market share, see AI Share.

A. AI share forecast for next month (Oct 2026)
The model forecasts ChatGPT in the lead (about 81.7%). Followed by Google Gemini and Perplexity. (reference, not actuals)

Forecast share for next month (Oct 2026)

AI toolLatest actual (Sep 2026)Forecast (Oct 2026)Direction
ChatGPT80.49%81.69%▲1.20
Google Gemini10.94%11.93%▲0.99
Perplexity5.82%5.14%▼0.68
Microsoft Copilot1.78%1.21%▼0.57
Claude0.95%0.02%▼0.93
DeepSeek0.02%0.01%▼0.01
Model validation (backtest)

Forecasting Sep 2026 and comparing with the actual

Using only data before Sep 2026, the model forecast Sep 2026 and we compared it with the actual. Mean absolute error (MAE) = 1.18pt.

AI toolForecastActualError
ChatGPT79.54%80.49%0.95pt
Google Gemini12.22%10.94%1.28pt
Perplexity3.23%5.82%2.59pt
Microsoft Copilot2.61%1.78%0.83pt
Claude2.38%0.95%1.43pt
DeepSeek0.02%0.02%0.00pt

How the forecast is computed

We add the average month-over-month change (momentum) over the most recent three months to the latest actual to estimate the next month, then normalize so all tools sum to 100%. Discontinuous changes such as new model launches or sudden buzz are not reflected.

For transparency, we also include a "backtest" where the same model forecasts the latest month and is compared with the actual. For the methodology, see also Data & methodology.

Frequently asked questions

Is this forecast accurate?
It is a simple model forecast based on past trends (a reference value). On the latest-month backtest, the average error was about 1.18 points. The market can shift sharply with new model launches, so please treat it only as a rough guide.
How is the forecast calculated?
We add the average month-over-month change (momentum) of the recent months to the latest actual and normalize so the total is 100%. It is a model estimate, not an actual figure.
Where can I see the actual share?
On the AI Share page you can check actual worldwide and country-level share and history, with sources cited.

Related pages

AI share & usage (actual)→AI popularity ranking→AI landscape map→Data & methodology→

⚠ These rankings are reference values based on public market-share data, web-traffic estimates and editorial research, and do not represent a complete count of every user of each AI tool. Rankings change with the measurement method (web-visit share vs. market share, etc.). Always check each official site for the latest information.